North Somerset Council Budget Gap Doubles to £12m Next Year

North Somerset Council’s budget gap for next year has more than doubled since February. The council now expects to be £12.1m short in 2027/28, against the £5.5m it forecast when it set this year’s budget.

Across the four years to 2031 the gap is £40.6m. The figures are in a Medium Term Financial Plan report going to Cabinet on Wednesday 16 September.

The council is also overspending now. A separate budget monitoring report forecasts it will spend £8.7m more than its budget this year, most of it on adult social care.

The overspend this year

The council set a net revenue budget of £251.5m in February. Managers now forecast spending of £260.2m by March, based on figures at the end of July. That is 3.47% over.

It has already come down. At the end of June the forecast overspend was £11.8m. The report says directorates have since started to build their recovery plans into the numbers.

The biggest pressures listed by services are:

• £6.7m on adult care packages, including more younger adults needing support
• £1.85m of adult social care savings not delivered
• £1.3m on care and accommodation for children in care or on the edge of care
• £1.2m on supporting children with disabilities
• £743,000 on waste, from demand, disposal costs and lower recycling income
• £366,000 less than expected from car parking

To cover part of the gap, the council is releasing £2.5m, which is 95% of its contingency budget. Lower borrowing costs and higher investment income add another £968,000.

Adult social care is the main problem

Adult social care is the largest part of the budget. The council expected to spend over £156m on it this year, supporting more than 2,600 residents.

After three months the directorate was forecasting a £9.6m overspend. By the end of July that had fallen to £8.1m once recovery measures were counted. The report breaks the pressure down, including:

• £2.4m more on residential placements, largely people who entered care after the budget was set
• £2.2m more on home care and direct payments
• £1.1m more on supported living
• £0.9m more on young people moving from children’s to adult services
• £0.8m less income than budgeted from the NHS for mental health aftercare

New controls include sending higher-cost care placements up to senior managers for approval. Staff will also check whether some needs are health-related, so the NHS pays a share.

The £73m schools deficit

Separately, spending on children with special educational needs and disabilities is forecast to overspend by £30m this year. That money comes from the ring-fenced Dedicated Schools Grant, worth about £81m to North Somerset in 2026/27.

The council’s deficit on that grant was £43m at the start of the year. If nothing changes it reaches £73m by March 2027.

A government accounting override keeps the deficit off the council’s main budget until March 2028. The report notes the general reserve holds only £10.6m, which “would not be sufficient to fund the deficit in its entirety” without that override.

There may be help. The council expects it could receive a grant of about £38m, covering up to 90% of its 2025/26 deficit. That depends on the Department for Education approving its SEND reform plan. How the rest will be funded is not yet known.

Next year and beyond

The new forecast by year:

The report gives two main reasons. The biggest change since February is extra money built in for the higher cost of adult social care. Government funding is also still falling: the council’s funding was cut by £18.6m over three years under the Fair Funding Review, with further reductions of £6.2m expected in both 2027/28 and 2028/29.

The council’s plan to close the gap rests on three things: more income, transforming services, and savings. It has hired the consultancy Perago as its change partner, with more detail due at Cabinet in October.

Of the £20.5m of savings in this year’s budget, £18.5m, or 91%, is forecast to be delivered or covered another way.

What it means for you

• Council tax. The forecast assumes council tax rises by 4.99% every year, covering general services and the adult social care precept. That is an assumption, not a decision. Our North Somerset council tax bands page has this year’s charges.
• A budget consultation is coming. Cabinet will publish a draft 2027/28 budget in December and consult residents on it. A final budget goes to full Council in February 2027.
• Care users. The council says it is making sure people with capital over the government’s £23,250 limit are billed for their share of care without delay.
• Watch the meeting. Cabinet meets at 2.30pm on Wednesday 16 September in the New Council Chamber at Weston-super-Mare Town Hall. It is streamed on YouTube; the link is on the meeting page. Requests to speak had to reach the council by noon the day before.

The budget monitoring report is a decision for Cabinet. The financial plan report is for information only at this stage.

Sources

• North Somerset Council, Budget Monitor and Performance Reporting 2026/27, Month 4 update, report to Cabinet, 16 September 2026, for the overspend, service pressures, mitigations, adult social care breakdown, savings delivery, reserve and Dedicated Schools Grant figures.
• North Somerset Council, Medium Term Financial Plan 2027-2031, report to Cabinet, 16 September 2026, for the February and September budget gap tables, council tax and funding assumptions, and the budget timetable.
• Cabinet agenda, 16 September 2026 for the meeting time, venue and speaking rules.